Elon Musk says that we are a simulation. Here's why.

Can you say for sure that you exist? That you are real? Like really real? Like not a simulation of any kind? Unless you’ve made this amazing scientific discovery that this is legitimate reality (Congrats-you can now collect your Nobel Prize), you probably can’t. And if you think about it, we very well could be a simulation, just like what Elon Musk says. Here’s how.

Take 3 different hypotheses in a future scenario, where we are unaware of our position in reality: 1. We have developed ancestral simulation, but we go extinct before we can produce it. 2. We’ve developed ancestral simulation, but we don’t produce it because of ethical reasons. and 3: We are a simulation.

So, in Scenario number 1, there is a ceiling to our advancement. This can be in part to many different factors, from global warming to a robot takeover. However, with the vast ad exponential growth in computing power, this is more unlikely than not. In a study done by Oxford University in 2008, the chance of us going extinct in less than 100 years is about 19%. However, the chance that we will be able to stimulate senses and consciousness in the next 50, is much higher, thanks to the exponential rise in computing advancement.

In Scenario #2, many people will be able to get this powerful technology standard, and it only takes a small number of people to seriously tamper with a computer. And considering our intense passion for clashing ethics, it seems highly improbable that there won’t be a small number of people in a population that is now over 8B that will still want to tamper with this technology.

And then there’s scenario #3, where we ARE a simulation. This event seems more likely because, if we can create this sort of technology, why can’t another, older race do the same? Or take the fact that both of the other scenarios are highly improbable. Or the fact that, if there are other universes, chances are that we are all within boxes vs. separated variables which somehow mirror each other.

Considering the fact that there’s only 1 more hypothesis, where we have the tech, and we use it, we could be able to figure out if we, by ourselves are a simulation, by looking for a glitch with our universe. Which is highly dangerous and forms a paradox (take a look at scenario number one). And just take a second to realize the fact that the above probability blows your mind, which in turn could mean that there is indeed some sort of computing limit in what we can process, otherwise, there should be some way for us to make logical sense of it.

In the end, I would place my bet on simulation vs. base reality as well, as it seems that the odds are this is not base reality in the first place.